BP's energy trend forecast: the peak of global carbon emissions will come after 2020
recently, BP released BP 2030 world energy outlook in London, UK. BP's latest forecast of energy trends shows that the global energy growth in the next 20 years will be mainly concentrated in emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil, and energy efficiency will also be accelerated. The global carbon emission peak will come soon after 2020, when the carbon emission level will be 20% higher than that in 2005
bp2030 world energy outlook is the first forward-looking analysis report released by BP. For the past 60 years, BP has been publishing detailed historical data through BP world energy statistics
the primary energy consumption will increase by nearly 40% in the next 20 years.
according to BP's basic prediction, the global primary energy demand will constitute a leading enterprise with a production and marketing range of more than 40gwh in 2010, with an average annual growth of 1.7% in 2030, although the demand growth will slow down after 2020
primary energy consumption will increase by nearly 40% in the next 20 years. The energy consumption of non OECD countries will increase by 68% by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 2.6%, and constitute 93% of the world's energy consumption growth. Relatively speaking, the energy consumption of OECD countries will increase by 0.3% annually by 2030; After 2020, the per capita energy consumption of OECD countries will decline by 0.2% per year. At the same time, the energy intensity measured by energy consumption per unit output value will be improved globally, first of all in non OECD countries
natural gas will become the fastest-growing petrochemical energy
according to BP 2030 world energy outlook, the fuel structure will gradually change over time, the diversification of energy sources will be strengthened, the market share of oil will continue to decline for a long time, the market share of natural gas will steadily increase, and non petrochemical energy such as nuclear energy, hydropower and renewable energy is expected to become the main source of supply growth for the first time. Between 2010 and 2030, renewable energy, including solar energy, wind energy, geothermal energy and bioenergy, will contribute to energy growth from 5% to 18%
the growth of oil (excluding biofuels) is relatively slow, with an average annual growth of 0.6%; Natural gas has become the fastest-growing petrochemical energy, with an average annual growth rate of 2.1%, more than three times that of the former. The contribution of petrochemical energy to the growth of primary energy will be reduced from 83% to 64%. As the overall growth of petrochemical energy slows down, the market share of coal and oil may decline. The average annual growth rate of carbon benefited from the coal capacity removal industry is 1.2%. By 2030, it is basically equivalent to the energy provided by oil (excluding biofuels) and the function and working principle of spring tension testing machine reducer. The oil demand of OECD countries peaked in 2005 and is expected to return to the level of 1990 by 2030. Biofuels will account for 9% of global transportation fuel consumption
with the rapid development of industrialization, especially in China and India, the coal market share will increase in the near future, but this trend will be reversed before 2030. By 2030, the market shares of the above three petrochemical fuels will converge, accounting for about 27% each. The diversified energy structure is significantly reflected in the share growth. Between 1990 and 2010, fossil fuels accounted for 83% of energy growth, while in the next 20 years, fossil fuels are likely to account for 64% of energy growth. Renewable energy (excluding hydropower) and biofuels will account for 18% of energy growth in 2030
biofuels have increased significantly. The United States and Brazil are dominant.
biofuel production is expected to rise from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2010 to 6.7 million barrels per day in 2030. Its growth in the next 20 years will be 125% of the increase in liquid fuel supply in non oil until normal in the organization of exporting countries. Continuous policy support, high oil prices and continuous technological innovation will promote the rapid expansion of biofuels
the United States and Brazil accounted for about 76% of the total global biofuel production in 2010, but since the production in the Asia Pacific region began to rise, this figure will fall to 68% in 2030
peak carbon emissions are 20% higher than that in 2005
bp2030 world energy outlook predicts that based on the current situation and trends of political commitments of countries, policies aimed at climate change and energy security will continue
Dr. Ruhr pointed out that "with the strengthening of BP's carbon emission policy, the global carbon emission peak will come soon after 2020, and the carbon emission level will be 20% higher than that in 2005, higher than the development trend expected by the International Energy Agency. This shows that after 2030, we must make more efforts to maintain the global emissions within the 'safe' range"
the realization of emission reduction under strengthened policy conditions stems from accelerated energy efficiency improvement and fuel substitution, from coal to natural gas, from petrochemical energy to nuclear energy, hydropower and renewable energy, and includes the introduction of carbon capture and storage technology in thermal power and natural gas power plants
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